Will AI take your job?

We’re repeating the mistake of trying to predict the future. Many are arrogant about their individual predictions. They call others who don’t share the same opinion morons.

There are so many independent variables that determine the future, it is practically impossible to make an accurate prediction. Five years ago, we didn’t think AI will disrupt everything in this way. Five years from now, we can’t possibly tell. There might be a breakthrough, or maybe not, we don’t know. We just can’t tell.

Many people are scared and I don't think that is unnatural. People are supposed to be scared when they have skin in the game. Comforting a person in this situation saying that AI will just be a tool and won't disrupt their career is like saying, "Here is the gun, shoot when the bear attacks you". It doesn't help because the person is still scared.

The problem i see is people being too arrogant about their understanding of the future. Claiming the future to be overly optimistic.

Is it pessimistic then? I don't know. But I do know that you lose nothing when you prepare for the worst and the best happens, but you lose everything when you're prepared for the best and the worst happens.

This is pessimistic but I see people underestimating how far this technology can go. I hear people saying, "AI will never automate my job because it is too dumb for that"

Sure, that might be true. BUT for NOW. Unfortunately, our concern isn't just now, it is the future. And we can't conclude that AI will never be smart enough to automate your job.

Things that no one thought will happen happens all the time. It’s pervasive.

Also, when you’re scared, you don’t know who to listen to. A plumber will always overstate the importance of pipes, a doctor that of treatment, a lawyer that of filing suits. Similarly a software engineer that of programming. This is normal. But then, you can’t trust the source of opinion because it can be biased. It is biased.

But you also can’t trust someone who doesn’t have their skin in the game.

Things really are confusing.

If you’ve already made a fortune in those jobs, you’re okay. You don’t have much to lose even if any disruption happens. Trouble is with people who are just starting out because the entry bar is being set higher.

The way forward, in my opinion, without putting arrogance in it, will be that you can now either pivot to fields that require human connections and decisions or other tangible fields. And if not, then become very, very good at what you do.

If you’re on a boat and you feel that there is a hole underneath, you better be a very good swimmer or change the mode of transport altogether. If you’re not a very good swimmer and you don’t feel like being one, getting off the boat might cost you time and money, staying in it might cost you your life.

But nonetheless, no matter what happens, we’ll figure out how to make things work. Eventually. We always have.